{"id":178,"date":"2020-02-07T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-06T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/?p=178"},"modified":"2021-12-01T10:54:07","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T09:54:07","slug":"what-prospects-for-arms-and-missile-control-after-the-end-of-the-inf-treaty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/what-prospects-for-arms-and-missile-control-after-the-end-of-the-inf-treaty\/","title":{"rendered":"What prospects for arms and missile control after the end of the INF Treaty?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"178\" class=\"elementor elementor-178\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-24f911 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"24f911\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1252aa4f\" data-id=\"1252aa4f\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-46fdcf7e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"46fdcf7e\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-66 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-69262bf8\" data-id=\"69262bf8\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-13922f53 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"13922f53\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">What prospects for arms and missile control after the end of the INF Treaty?<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5e8c3441 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5e8c3441\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Fondation pour la Recherche Strat\u00e9gique<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1099c6ba\" data-id=\"1099c6ba\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c9a927e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1c9a927e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Recherches &amp; Documents n\u00b003\/2020<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-70d8a095 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"70d8a095\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-66 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4de7f5bd\" data-id=\"4de7f5bd\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-296e714e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"296e714e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>This note identifies the various proposals for arms control in a post-INF world, with a focus on missiles. It seeks to offer an analysis of diplomatic suggestions and non-State expert reports, putting the ins and outs of the various proposals into perspective and reflecting on their feasibility and prospects in the current context.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>It consists of three parts. First, it examines the prospects of regulation of traditional missiles, such as intermediate-range strategic missiles and non-strategic missiles. Secondly, it looks at the suggested options for adapting arms control to the new strategic context. And lastly, it examines the proposals made to regulate missile technology innovations.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6b5df850\" data-id=\"6b5df850\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6dd0ffc2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6dd0ffc2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>FEBRUARY 2020<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Emmanuelle Maitre<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-663d8c3 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"663d8c3\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-af71bb2\" data-id=\"af71bb2\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1f14fe5e elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"1f14fe5e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"80\" height=\"96\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/pdf-1.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-3024\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-26f37ea0\" data-id=\"26f37ea0\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-64361545 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"64361545\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-hcoc\/uploads\/2020\/02\/202003.pdf\">Download in English<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-hcoc\/uploads\/2020\/02\/202002.pdf\">Download in French<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6c01f0f6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6c01f0f6\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-388c44d4\" data-id=\"388c44d4\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-42501fc0 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"42501fc0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-550468e9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"550468e9\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-362c91ed\" data-id=\"362c91ed\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-727e0001 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"727e0001\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">INTRODUCTION<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4045eca9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4045eca9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4>\u00a0<\/h4>\n<h4>\u00a0<\/h4>\n<h4>\u00a0<\/h4>\n<h4>\u00a0<\/h4>\n<h4><em>&#8220;The arms control inherited from the Cold War is now experiencing a crisis. Several treaties have been challenged since 2003, and particularly the INF Treaty from which the United States and Russia withdrew in 2019.&#8221;<\/em><\/h4>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3805\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/header-logo-300x123.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"123\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/header-logo-300x123.png 300w, https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/header-logo.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-66 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-325996d4\" data-id=\"325996d4\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1a89d860 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1a89d860\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In the last hours of the Cold War, the INF Treaty went down in history as the very first bilateral agreement to ban a whole category of weapons. The Treaty, signed in 1987 after almost a decade of negotiations, led to the United States and the Soviet Union eliminating surface-to-surface missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500\u00a0km (intermediate-range nuclear forces, or INF). These missiles, which were then deployed in Europe and the Soviet Union, were regarded as particularly dangerous, as their short time of flight made any counterattack impossible to prepare. For this reason, the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in Europe (SS\u201120 by the Soviet Union and Pershing by NATO) had already triggered a vast popular protest movement on the continent.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>Previously, the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) had resulted in restricting the number of weapons deployed by the two superpowers. The SALT\u00a0I and SALT\u00a0II Treaties particularly laid down rules on the quantitative and qualitative development of ICBMs (ground-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles) and SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles).<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>Later, the arms control agreements signed by Washington and Moscow continued to focus closely on missile control. The Start\u00a0I, Start\u00a0II and New START agreements each defined volume limits for different categories of strategic missiles (ICBM and SLBM). Finally, in 1991, President Bush committed to eliminate a number of \u2018tactical\u2019 nuclear weapons in the \u201cPresidential Nuclear Initiatives\u201d (PNIs). In practice, short-range ground-launched and surface-vessel-launched ballistic or cruise missiles were withdrawn. President Gorbachev responded with a similar announcement the same year indicating,\u00a0<em>inter alia<\/em>, the withdrawal of short-range naval systems and nuclear missiles previously launched by tactical aircraft.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>Outside this bilateral framework, several diplomatic efforts focused on regulating missiles, regarded as potentially destabilising weapons due to their ability to travel very long distances in a short timeframe, their lethality, the difficulty in intercepting them and their capacity to carry weapons of mass destruction.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>An international export control regime was therefore introduced in 1987 to stem transfers of missile technologies which could serve to deliver weapons of mass destruction. In 2002, The Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation was adopted, setting out the non-proliferation norms for this type of weapon for its signatories (93 at the time, 140 at present). The Code also supports a transparency regime in respect of ballistic missile deployments and doctrines, as well as test firing and space launches, to avoid any likelihood of confusion with an attack. This kind of confidence-building and reciprocal notice measures already existed bilaterally between the Soviet Union and the United States (the first agreement was signed in 1971) and was reproduced between India and Pakistan in 2005.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>The arms control inherited from the Cold War is now experiencing a crisis. Several treaties have been challenged since 2003, and particularly the INF Treaty from which the United States and Russia withdrew in 2019. This event marked the end of a more than five-year-long dispute between Washington and Moscow over the compliance with the terms of the Treaty, since the US administration accused Russia of developing a cruise missile prohibited under it. In response, Russia denounced the antimissile systems developed in Europe as having a potential offensive capability, and therefore being prohibited by the INF. Furthermore, the main arms control instrument remaining, the New START Treaty, could be soon terminated since it is due to expire in February 2021. The Russian and US Presidents can agree to extend its term for five years, but no announcement has been made along these lines so far.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>This context of decline coincides with a considerable deterioration in relations between major powers, especially between Russia and the United States, prompting States in recent years to reassess the nuclear factor in their doctrines, and to modernise or even diversify their arsenals. New systems are mentioned \u2013 dual-capable missiles, hypersonic missiles, non-strategic ballistic missiles and nuclear torpedoes, to name a few \u2013 and arms race dynamics can be seen. The disappearance of arms control instruments and the parallel development of new, potentially destabilising systems, particularly missiles, raise questions. Some believe \u201carms control without a treaty,\u201d as phrased by an analyst, must now be envisaged.\u00a0Others consider it necessary to study new ways of regulating these weapons, with new restrictions, new methods and new formats.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-hcoc\/uploads\/2020\/02\/202003.pdf\">Click here to download the report<\/a><\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This note identifies the various proposals for arms control in a post-INF world, with a focus on missiles. It seeks to offer an analysis of diplomatic suggestions and non-State expert reports, putting the ins and outs of the various proposals into perspective and reflecting on their feasibility and prospects in the current context.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":177,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications","category-other-publications"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What prospects for arms and missile control after the end of the INF Treaty? - HCoC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/what-prospects-for-arms-and-missile-control-after-the-end-of-the-inf-treaty\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What prospects for arms and missile control after the end of the INF Treaty? - HCoC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This note identifies the various proposals for arms control in a post-INF world, with a focus on missiles. 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