{"id":195,"date":"2020-06-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-06-14T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/?p=195"},"modified":"2022-02-17T14:35:30","modified_gmt":"2022-02-17T13:35:30","slug":"controlling-ballistic-missile-proliferation-assessing-complementarity-between-the-hcoc-mtcr-and-unscr-1540","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/controlling-ballistic-missile-proliferation-assessing-complementarity-between-the-hcoc-mtcr-and-unscr-1540\/","title":{"rendered":"Controlling ballistic missile proliferation Assessing complementarity between the HCoC, MTCR and UNSCR 1540"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Controlling ballistic missile\nproliferation<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Assessing complementarity between the\nHCoC, MTCR and UNSCR 1540 <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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HCOC RESEARCH PAPERS\nNO. 7<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, the Missile Technology Control Regime and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 each contribute to the international regime for the nonproliferation of ballistic missiles. The three instruments aim at controlling both horizontal and vertical proliferation. However, the complementarity of the three instruments in fulfilling their roles in supply-side and demand-side non-proliferation, particularly in the areas of export controls and transparency and confidencebuilding measures, has not been sufficiently explored.<\/p>

Several gaps remain in the universalisation and acceptance of the instruments, their coverage, and the comprehensiveness of the standards they establish, which limits their degree of complementarity. The three instruments should strengthen the implementation of their provisions, institutional linkages and improve their interactions. Cross-cutting themes and challenges, such as hypersonic missiles, could help demonstrate convergences, complementarity and avenues for cooperation and synergies.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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JUNE 2020<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kolja Brockmann<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Download in English<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Introduction<\/h1>

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‘T<\/span><\/span>he <\/span>Hague <\/span>Code <\/span>of <\/span>Conduct <\/span>against <\/span>Ballistic Missile Proliferation (Hague Code of <\/span>Conduct, <\/span>HCoC), <\/span>the <\/span>Missile <\/span>Technology <\/span>Control Regime (MTCR) and United Nations <\/span>Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>are three key non<\/span>–<\/span>proliferation instruments <\/span>that seek to address the challenges posed <\/span>by <\/span>missile <\/span>proliferation.’<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The international missile non<\/span>–<\/span>proliferation <\/span>regime is in a dire state. The acquisition of <\/span>missiles <\/span>and <\/span>the <\/span>required <\/span>technology <\/span>by <\/span>more states and non<\/span>–<\/span>state groups which did <\/span>not <\/span>previously <\/span>have <\/span>them<\/span>\u2014<\/span>commonly <\/span>referred <\/span>to <\/span>as <\/span>horizontal <\/span>proliferation<\/span>\u2014<\/span>continues. At the same time, most missile <\/span>possessor <\/span>states <\/span>practice <\/span>vertical <\/span>proliferation, <\/span>which <\/span>describes <\/span>the <\/span>quantitative expansion or modernisation of <\/span>arsenals <\/span>and <\/span>the <\/span>development <\/span>of <\/span>new <\/span>missile types.<\/span>1<\/span><\/strong><\/a> In particular, the acquisition <\/span>of increasingly sophisticated missiles by a <\/span>growing number of states and non<\/span>–<\/span>state <\/span>actors in several regions of the world, as <\/span>well <\/span>as <\/span>the <\/span>development <\/span>of <\/span>new <\/span>missile <\/span>technologies <\/span>and <\/span>the <\/span>modernisation <\/span>of <\/span>existing stockpiles by major powers, creates <\/span>uncertainty <\/span>and <\/span>fuels <\/span>regional <\/span>and <\/span>international instability. At least 31 states <\/span>have acquired ballistic missiles, at least 12 <\/span>possess space launch capabilities and many <\/span>more supply components and technology <\/span>towards ballistic missile and space launch <\/span>programmes.<\/span>2<\/span><\/strong><\/a> Several non<\/span>–<\/span>state actors have <\/span>acquired missiles, as recent uses of missiles <\/span>in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia have <\/span>demonstrated.<\/span>3<\/span><\/strong><\/a> Iranian and North Korean <\/span>missile developments continue despite the <\/span>imposition of severe sanctions regimes. The <\/span>demise of the Intermediate<\/span>–<\/span>range Nuclear <\/span>Forces <\/span>(INF) <\/span>Treaty<\/span>\u2014<\/span>which <\/span>banned <\/span>an <\/span>entire <\/span>class <\/span>of <\/span>missiles<\/span>\u2014<\/span>removed <\/span>restrictions on arsenals of the United States <\/span>of America (USA), the Russian Federation <\/span>(Russia) and several other Soviet successor <\/span>states, spurring fears of new military build<\/span>–<\/span>ups <\/span>in <\/span>Europe <\/span>and <\/span>other <\/span>regions.<\/span>4<\/span><\/strong><\/a> In <\/span>addition, Russia, the USA, the People\u2019s <\/span>Republic of China (China) and several other <\/span>states, including France, are undertaking the <\/span>development <\/span>of <\/span>hypersonic <\/span>missile <\/span>technology, <\/span>creating <\/span>perceptions <\/span>of <\/span>new <\/span>vulnerabilities.<\/span>5<\/span><\/strong><\/a> These <\/span>developments <\/span>increase <\/span>related <\/span>potentially <\/span>destabilising <\/span>activities, including the use of missiles in <\/span>ongoing conflicts, the frequency of missile <\/span>flight ests, a potential widening of the use <\/span>spectrum <\/span>of <\/span>missiles, <\/span>nuclear <\/span>and <\/span>conventional <\/span>entanglement <\/span>and <\/span>the <\/span>demand <\/span>for <\/span>and <\/span>in <\/span>turn <\/span>proliferation <\/span>of <\/span>missile <\/span>technology. <\/span>In <\/span>light <\/span>of <\/span>these <\/span>developments <\/span>and <\/span>in <\/span>the <\/span>absence <\/span>of <\/span>a <\/span>strong norm or treaty banning or regulating <\/span>all <\/span>or <\/span>certain <\/span>types <\/span>of <\/span>missiles, <\/span>strengthening the existing non<\/span>–<\/span>proliferation <\/span>architecture and its remaining instruments <\/span>is ever more important. <\/span><\/span><\/p>

T<\/span><\/span>he <\/span>Hague <\/span>Code <\/span>of <\/span>Conduct <\/span>against <\/span>Ballistic Missile Proliferation (Hague Code of <\/span>Conduct, <\/span>HCoC), <\/span>the <\/span>Missile <\/span>Technology <\/span>Control Regime (MTCR) and United Nations <\/span>Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>are three key non<\/span>–<\/span>proliferation instruments <\/span>that seek to address the challenges posed <\/span>by <\/span>missile <\/span>proliferation. <\/span>The <\/span>MTCR <\/span>and <\/span>UNSCR 1540 are export control instruments <\/span>that <\/span>provide <\/span>a <\/span>framework <\/span>for <\/span>creating <\/span>standards <\/span>and <\/span>control <\/span>measures <\/span>for <\/span>the <\/span>trade in missile systems and relevant goods <\/span>and technologies. They are however often <\/span>only considered for their roles in enabling <\/span>technology denial, while their other roles <\/span>such <\/span>as <\/span>creating <\/span>transparency <\/span>among <\/span>supplier states, including on licence denials <\/span>and <\/span>detected <\/span>procurement <\/span>attempts <\/span>and <\/span>diversion, are often neglected. The HCoC is <\/span>the <\/span>only <\/span>multilateral <\/span>agreement <\/span>covering <\/span>missiles <\/span>open <\/span>to <\/span>all <\/span>states, <\/span>but <\/span>it <\/span>is <\/span>frequently <\/span>criticised <\/span>for <\/span>its <\/span>limited <\/span>scope <\/span>and effectiveness. By fulfilling its role as a <\/span>transparency <\/span>and <\/span>confidence<\/span>–<\/span>building <\/span>instrument <\/span>that <\/span>commits <\/span>states <\/span>to <\/span>responsible <\/span>conduct <\/span>and <\/span>information <\/span>sharing, <\/span>it <\/span>nonetheless <\/span>seeks <\/span>to <\/span>ease <\/span>tensions and perceptions of insecurity and <\/span>help states refrain from destabilising arms <\/span>races. <\/span>As <\/span>the <\/span>only <\/span>demand<\/span>–<\/span>side <\/span>non<\/span>–<\/span>proliferation <\/span>instrument <\/span>for <\/span>missiles, <\/span>it <\/span>occupies <\/span>a <\/span>key <\/span>position <\/span>in <\/span>the <\/span>current <\/span>missile <\/span>non<\/span>–<\/span>proliferation <\/span>architecture<\/span>\u2014<\/span>despite its weaknesses.<\/span>6<\/span> <\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>

Through their different functions, each of <\/span>these three instruments serves to address <\/span>both horizontal and vertical proliferation of <\/span>ballistic missiles, mainly by strengthening <\/span>export <\/span>controls <\/span>and <\/span>implementing <\/span>transparency <\/span>and <\/span>confidence<\/span>–<\/span>building <\/span>measures. However, their complementarity <\/span>remains poorly explored. At a time of severe <\/span>crisis in traditional arms control approaches, <\/span>there <\/span>is <\/span>a <\/span>need <\/span>for <\/span>more <\/span>in <\/span>–<\/span>depth <\/span>consideration of these three instruments\u2019 <\/span>respective <\/span>contributions <\/span>to <\/span>missile <\/span>non<\/span>–<\/span>proliferation.<\/span>7 <\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/span>This paper therefore explores <\/span>to what extent HCoC, MTCR, and UNSCR <\/span>1540 are complementary in addressing both <\/span>horizontal <\/span>and <\/span>vertical <\/span>proliferation <\/span>of <\/span>ballistic <\/span>missiles <\/span>by <\/span>means <\/span>of <\/span>export <\/span>controls and transparency and confidence<\/span>–<\/span>building measures. <\/span><\/span><\/p>

The <\/span>paper <\/span>mainly <\/span>focuses <\/span>on <\/span>ballistic <\/span>missiles, rather than on all types of missile <\/span>systems. A ballistic missile is understood to <\/span>be an \u2018unmanned, actively guided, rocket<\/span>–<\/span>propelled vehicle that can be fired […] along <\/span>a ballistic (or parabolic) trajectory.\u2019<\/span>8<\/span><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0 Ballistic <\/span>missiles <\/span>remain <\/span>the <\/span>delivery <\/span>system <\/span>of <\/span>choice for nuclear weapons and they are <\/span>also associated with the delivery of chemical <\/span>and biological weapons. As such, ballistic <\/span>missile proliferation is intrinsically linked to <\/span>the threat posed by chemical, biological and <\/span>nuclear <\/span>(CBN) <\/span>weapons <\/span>to <\/span>international peace and security. The entanglement of modern conventionally armed ballistic missiles and those carrying CBN weapons\u2014in the absence of arms control agreements creating the necessary transparency, for example through mutual access and inspections\u2014further contributes to crisis instability and increases miscalculation risks.9<\/strong><\/a> The limited ability to defend against ballistic missiles, even for those states with advanced missile defence systems, increases states\u2019 perception of ulnerability, often resulting in potentially destabilising arms build-ups. There is also a \u2018dual-use dilemma\u2019 affecting missile technology. Similar technologies are employed both in ballistic missiles and in civilian space launch rockets. States\u2019 right to acquire technology for the latter purpose in order to exercise their rights to the peaceful uses of outer space is explicitly permitted in relevant international treaties. As such, it is more difficult to distinguish legitimate trade and technology transfers from those fuelling a weapons programme. For this reason, the HCoC also seeks to address states\u2019 space launch capabilities and policies. While cruise missiles are associated with some of the same risks as ballistic missiles, they are currently not covered by the HCoC.10<\/strong><\/a> The reasons for this, and the need for an expansion of the coverage of the HCoC to include cruise missiles has been discussed by other authors and is beyond the scope of this paper.11 <\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>

First, this paper outlines the existing non-proliferation architecture on ballistic missiles by discussing the origins and scope of the HCoC, MTCR and UNSCR 1540. The second part of the paper analyses the roles of the three instruments in seeking to address both horizontal and vertical proliferation of ballistic missiles by means of export controls and transparency and confidence building. It further discusses their complementarity and interactions in fulfilling these roles. Then, it develops recommendations on strengthening the HCoC, MTCR and UNSCR 1540, improving complementarity and enhancing their cooperation. Finally, it briefly draws conclusions on the complementarity of HCoC, MTCR and UNSCR 1540 as tools for ballistic missile non-proliferation. […]<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>

Click here to download the report<\/em><\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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1<\/strong> Victor Sidel, \u2018Vertical nuclear proliferation,\u2019 Medicine, Conflict and Survival<\/em>, vol. 23, no. 4, 2007, p. 250.<\/p>

2<\/strong> Kelsey Davenport, \u2018Worldwide Ballistic Missile Inventories\u2019, Arms Control Association Fact Sheets<\/em>, December 2017, <https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/factsheets\/missiles><\/a>.<\/p>

3<\/strong> Jean Masson, \u2018Les missiles des Houthis: prolife\u0301ration balistique et groupes arme\u0301s non-e\u0301tatiques\u2019 [The Houthis\u2019 missiles: ballistic missile proliferation and armed non-state groups], Recherches & Documents<\/em>, no. 11\/2018, FRS, December 2018.<\/p>

4<\/strong> On the demise of the INF treaty, see Ian Anthony, \u2018European Security after the INF Treaty,\u2019 Survival<\/em>, vol. 59, no. 6, December 2017\/January 2018, pp. 61-76; Ulrich K\u00fchn, \u2018Between a rock and a hard place: Europe in a post-INF world,\u2019 The Nonproliferation Review<\/em>, vol. 26, nos. 1-2, 2019, pp. 155-166.<\/p>

5<\/strong> Douglas Barrie, \u2018Unstable at speed: hypersonics and arms control,\u2019 Military Balance Blog<\/em>, IISS, 18th October 2019.<\/p>

6<\/strong> Mark Smith, \u2018The HCoC: Current challenges and future possibilities,\u2019 HCoC Research Papers<\/em>, no. 1, 2014, pp. 6\u20137.\u00a0<\/p>

7<\/strong> \u0141ukasz Kulesa, \u2018The crisis of nuclear arms control and its impact on European security,\u2019 Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Paper<\/em>, EUNPDC, no. 66, January 2020.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

8<\/strong> Aaron Karp, Ballistic Missile Proliferation: The Politics and Technics<\/em>, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1996, p. 4.<\/p>

9<\/strong> Ste\u0301phane Delory, \u2018Ballistic missiles and conventional strike weapons: Adapting the HCoC to address the dissemination of conventional ballistic missiles,\u2019 HCoC Research Papers<\/em>, no. 6, January 2020; Ulrich K\u00fchn, op. cit.\u00a0<\/p>

10<\/strong> Mark Smith, op.cit.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>

11<\/strong> See e.g. St\u00e9phane Delory, Emmanuelle Maitre, and Jean Masson, \u2018Opening HCoC to cruise missiles: A proposal to overcome political hurdles,\u2019 HCOC Research Paper<\/em>, no. 5, February 2019; Dennis Gormley, Missile Contagion: Cruise Missile Proliferation and the Threat to International Security<\/em>, Annapolis, Naval Institute Press, 2010.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, the Missile Technology Control Regime and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 each contribute to the international regime for the nonproliferation of ballistic missiles. The three instruments aim at controlling both horizontal and vertical proliferation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":2249,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-papers"],"yoast_head":"\nControlling ballistic missile proliferation Assessing complementarity between the HCoC, MTCR and UNSCR 1540 - HCoC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/controlling-ballistic-missile-proliferation-assessing-complementarity-between-the-hcoc-mtcr-and-unscr-1540\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Controlling ballistic missile proliferation Assessing complementarity between the HCoC, MTCR and UNSCR 1540 - HCoC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, the Missile Technology Control Regime and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 each contribute to the international regime for the nonproliferation of ballistic missiles. 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