{"id":205,"date":"2020-11-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-11-08T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/?p=205"},"modified":"2022-01-05T14:09:03","modified_gmt":"2022-01-05T13:09:03","slug":"the-state-of-ballistic-missile-proliferation-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/the-state-of-ballistic-missile-proliferation-today\/","title":{"rendered":"The State of Ballistic Missile Proliferation Today"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"205\" class=\"elementor elementor-205\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-1e369a8b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"1e369a8b\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f199e4e\" data-id=\"f199e4e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-435e413e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"435e413e\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2fa17ea8 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2fa17ea8\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-24b77d89\" data-id=\"24b77d89\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-55e6c19f elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"55e6c19f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The State of Ballistic Missile Proliferation Today<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2ea29828\" data-id=\"2ea29828\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-14d44380 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"14d44380\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>29 October 2021<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Virtual<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-5e8c41d1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"5e8c41d1\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-70713c51\" data-id=\"70713c51\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-25d6755a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"25d6755a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>This Virtual Side Event was organised on 29 October 2021 on the Margins of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/ga\/first\/index.shtml\">United Nations General Assembly First Committee<\/a> on Disarmament and International Security exploring the role of HCoC and other Confidence Building Measures in the field of missiles.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7b959a9b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7b959a9b\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2b9e87df\" data-id=\"2b9e87df\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-43d1eb2e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"43d1eb2e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4><strong>AGENDA<\/strong><\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-55d2023e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"55d2023e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>WELCOMING REMARKS\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:list --><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Mr Alexandre HOUDAYER, Secretary General, Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS)<\/li>\n<li>Amb. Marjolijn VAN DEELEN, Special Envoy for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, European External Action Service (EEAS), European Union<\/li>\n<li>Amb. Benno LAGGNER, Resident Representative to the IAEA, Permanent Representative to the CTBTO PrepCom, Permanent Mission of Switzerland, Vienna, Austria, Current Chair of the HCoC<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- \/wp:list --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>I\/ THE STATE OF BALLISTIC PROLIFERATION TODAY\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><strong>MODERATOR: <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ms Melissa HANHAM, Deputy Director, Open Nuclear Network; Director, Datayo Project<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>II\/ KEYNOTE PRESENTATION:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:list --><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Mr Shaan SHAIKH, Program Manager and Research Associate, Missile Defense Project and Mr Ian WILLIAMS, Fellow, International Security Program and Deputy Director, Missile Defense Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)\n<ul>\n<li><em>Missile proliferation and non-state actors: the case of Yemen (pre-recorded presentation during the morning session)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- \/wp:list --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-323ecc93\" data-id=\"323ecc93\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-78409352 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"78409352\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"626\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Screenshot-2021-12-17-at-16.43.21-1024x801.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-4929\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Screenshot-2021-12-17-at-16.43.21-1024x801.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Screenshot-2021-12-17-at-16.43.21-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Screenshot-2021-12-17-at-16.43.21-768x600.png 768w, https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Screenshot-2021-12-17-at-16.43.21.png 1402w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4ca88f9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4ca88f9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><!-- \/wp:list --><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><strong>DISCUSSION:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- wp:list --><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dr Sitki EGELI, Assistant Professor, Political Science and International Relations, Izmir University of Economics\n<ul>\n<li><em>Who has missiles today? Proliferation networks, dynamics and perspectives<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Dr Tytti ER\u00c4ST\u00d6, Senior Researcher, Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme, SIPRI\n<ul>\n<li><em>Managing missile threats in the Middle East<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-38763686 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"38763686\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-15cca45f\" data-id=\"15cca45f\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a6daa9d elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"a6daa9d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-17876be elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"17876be\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a336aa8\" data-id=\"a336aa8\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-92714ed elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"92714ed\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3><strong>Summary of the debates<\/strong><\/h3>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-47a3dae elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"47a3dae\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-25 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6aeac91\" data-id=\"6aeac91\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-77fd1ae\" data-id=\"77fd1ae\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-75a4df1 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"75a4df1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-25 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7fe7e4a\" data-id=\"7fe7e4a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2159897 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2159897\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-fe9691a\" data-id=\"fe9691a\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-538c4a8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"538c4a8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4><strong>Welcoming remarks<\/strong><\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-66 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-244b253\" data-id=\"244b253\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ba774f2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"ba774f2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>ALEXANDRE HOUDAYER<\/strong>, FRS\u2019 Secretary General, opened the virtual event by recalling the three recent subscriptions to the HCoC (by Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Equatorial Guinea and Somalia) which took place in the last year. The HCoC remains a modest yet effective tool as unpredictability increases in the existing international system, due to a changing power balance but also technological dynamics \u2013 and the brutal disruptions of the global pandemic we are currently experiencing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AMBASSADOR MARJOLIJN VAN DEELEN<\/strong>, EU Special Envoy for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, started by stressing that ballistic missile proliferation continues to be a serious concern to international peace and security, as reaffirmed in several UN Security Council Resolutions. Several regions of the world are engaged in a new arms race, creating security risks and geopolitical pressures. Despite this destabilising situation, there has been no legally binding agreement to stop ballistic missile proliferation, thereby compelling the international community to uphold and strengthen existing measures. To this end, the EU notably provided continuous diplomatic and financial support to the HCoC. It also encourages states to vote in favour of the upcoming UNGA Resolution on HCoC.<\/p>\n<p><strong>AMBASSADOR BENNO LAGGNER<\/strong>, Current HCoC Chair from the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs, recalled that Switzerland subscribed to the HCoC at its onset, in 2002, and the decision to take on the Chairmanship is another expression of the Swiss support for the instrument. Speaking in a national capacity, he stressed that ballistic missile activities and their destabilising effects are becoming a growing security concern. The increase in the numbers, geographic spread and sophistication of ballistic missiles is worrying. In this context, the HCoC, the MTCR and UNSCR 1540 constitute the key multilateral framework to address this trend. While the HCoC \u2013 with its focus on transparency and confidence-building measures \u2013 remains a modest instrument, it fills an important gap in the absence of legally binding norms in this area. Importantly, it does not constrain the development of space programs, and its scope is limited to ballistic missiles capable of delivering WMDs (and also covers SLVs). Challenges remain however, namely with regards to the further universalisation, enhanced implementation, and limited scope of the HCoC. The priorities of the Swiss chairmanship will be to strengthen the implementation of the Code\u2019s provisions, and to increase the visibility of the Code \u2013 including through the UNGA resolution.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-aa34c24 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"aa34c24\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-25 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-86da301\" data-id=\"86da301\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c560dfd\" data-id=\"c560dfd\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-29fb2afb elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"29fb2afb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-25 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-449e575\" data-id=\"449e575\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-be0f407 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"be0f407\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2ebb0df\" data-id=\"2ebb0df\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c16d55 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8c16d55\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4><strong>The State of Ballistic Missile Proliferation Today<\/strong><\/h4>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-66 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c158f3f\" data-id=\"c158f3f\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cbe5983 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"cbe5983\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>IAN WILLIAMS<\/strong>, Fellow, International Security Program and Deputy Director, Missile Defense Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and <strong>SHAAN SHAIKH<\/strong>, Program Manager and Research Associate, Missile Defense Project, introduced their recent report on missile proliferation in the case of Yemen. Since March 2015, the <strong>use of ballistic missiles by the Houthis has become a weekly and almost daily occurrence<\/strong> in the Yemen conflict. The earlier attacks all involved missiles that Yemen possessed prior to the conflict, and that the Yemeni government lost control of, such as Scud B\/C and <strong>SS-21 Tochka<\/strong> missiles. The latter defined the early period of the conflict, as they are the deadliest and most accurate ballistic systems that the Houthis possessed. As the conflict progressed, new systems have been displayed and used. They include <strong>Badr, Qaher and Burkan missiles<\/strong>, which the Houthis claim they domestically designed and produced. However, the Qaher appears to resemble Soviet surface-to-air missiles, the Badr is most likely an Iranian-Fajr derived rocket (which Iran has proliferated across the Middle East), the Burkan missile very likely originates from Iran, with these missiles being smuggled in pieces and then assembled in Yemen according to a UN report. These <strong>Iran-sourced weapons are becoming more long-range and more sophisticated<\/strong> (e.g. Burkan-2H \u2013 which is essentially the Iranian Qiam-1).<\/p>\n<p>By using ballistic systems to inflict military, but also economic and political costs on the coalition, the Houthis\u2019 ultimate goal is to stay in power in Yemen. They have not been very successful however. In terms of <strong>military costs<\/strong>, the number of casualties remained very limited and many missiles missed their target. <strong>Economic costs<\/strong> have also been relatively controlled, as the attacks have been very sporadic and hit targets have recovered quickly. Finally, in terms of <strong>political costs<\/strong>, the attacks on Saudi Arabia have certainly been embarrassing and increased pressure. However, the Houthi missile attacks have also backfired, making them look like the aggressor. Moreover, the Arab coalition mounted a counter-missile strategy composed of an air campaign, maritime and air restrictions, and air and missile defences. In short, the Houthis\u2019 access to ballistic missiles has enabled them to resist the Arab coalition, but not to defeat it. The <strong>war in Yemen has seen the most extensive use of BMs and other asymmetric aerial weapons of any conflict in recent history<\/strong>, and the use of those systems has undoubtedly contributed to the prolonging of the conflict, and the suffering of the Yemeni people. Long-range missiles could present an opportunity to negotiate an end to hostilities however: should the Houthis accept limits on their long-range missiles, allowing Saudi Arabia to accept a role for the Houthis in Yemen?<\/p>\n<p><strong>DR SITKI EGELI<\/strong>, Assistant Professor, Political Science and International Relations, Izmir University of Economics, then provided an overview of proliferation networks, dynamics and perspectives to participants. While it is becoming increasingly difficult to define those systems, we can count <strong>34 states possessing<\/strong> <strong>ballistic missiles<\/strong> to date, and <strong>17 states and non-state actors that produce them<\/strong>. The motivations to deploy ballistic systems are many: before launch, they are <strong>hard to find and destroy<\/strong>; after launch, they are <strong>difficult to detect, track and intercept<\/strong>; their constitute an <strong>alternative to air power<\/strong>; and can act as a <strong>strategic equalizer<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>While there are downsides to ballistic missiles, including their low accuracy (until now) and the need to invest in highly specialised technology, there is a <strong>renewed interest for ballistic missile acquisition<\/strong>, with many newcomers or old comers who are reacquiring ballistic capabilities. This interest is partly explained by a new stream of <strong>\u201ctactical\u201d ballistic missiles<\/strong> that are more reliable, responsive, accurate and affordable and that have new battlefield applications (e.g. anti-ship). It is also partly explained by the development of<strong> manoeuvring missiles<\/strong> at the tactical and strategic levels, including hypersonic vehicles and systems coupled to manoeuvring warheads (MaRV). These innovations complicate efforts to defend against potential strikes. As a result, there is an <strong>accelerating, untamed missile race in the Middle East, East Asia and Europe<\/strong>, at the same time as <strong>existing arms control arrangements such as the INF are disappearing<\/strong>, and that <strong>ballistic missile use in conflicts by states and non-state actors is increasing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Against this picture, a number of tools exist to render the proliferation of such systems more difficult. The first is <strong>export and technology controls<\/strong>, which serve to erect material, technological and cost barriers, but can encompass double standards. <strong>Missile defence<\/strong> is another instrument: while it can constitute a useful tool for crisis stability and escalation management, it remains beyond the reach of most states and risks setting off vertical proliferation. <strong>Arms control<\/strong>can then be mentioned: it remains a key instrument, but states\u2019 motivations are hard to eradicate, and the existing arms control architecture has been increasingly fragile in the past few years. Finally, there remain <strong>transparency and confidence-building measures such as the HCoC<\/strong>: they provide short-term reassurances while encompassing the long-term goal of building norms, constraints and responsible behaviour on the part of actors.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DR TYTTI ER\u00c4ST\u00d6<\/strong>, Senior Researcher, Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme, SIPRI, presented the main results of an upcoming SIPRI paper focusing on missiles (both ballistic and cruise missiles) in the Middle East. The three main takeaways of the report were outlined: firstly, <strong>missile ranges are not the only measure determining their strategic significance<\/strong>: some missiles, when combined with aircraft, see their range augmented; secondly, the <strong>issue of missile proliferation is not limited only to ballistic missiles in the hands of Iran<\/strong>, and a more comprehensive approach is needed; and thirdly, it is <strong>not a new problem<\/strong> \u2013 the accumulation of missile capabilities has taken place over a long period of time \u2013 but it has intensified in recent years, and the threshold for using ballistic missiles has lowered.<\/p>\n<p>The missile possessor states in the Middle East were then listed: <strong>Israel<\/strong> \u2013 the only regional country to have nuclear-armed missiles; <strong>Iran<\/strong> \u2013 which has the region\u2019s largest missile arsenal, and demonstrated its readiness to use them, such as against ISIS in 2017 and more recently against US force in January 2020; <strong>Saudi Arabia<\/strong>, which relies heavily on imports of ballistic missile technology, namely from China, and is increasingly involved in domestic production; the <strong>United Arab Emirates (UAE)<\/strong>, which have acquired missiles from France and the US, and have reportedly used shorter-range air-launched cruise missiles against the Houthis in Yemen; other recent developments include the sales by France of air- launched cruise missiles to <strong>Qatar<\/strong> and <strong>Egypt<\/strong>; and by the US to <strong>Turkey <\/strong>\u2013 which also produces short-range ballistic missiles. Israel and the Gulf states are also investing heavily in missile defence systems.<\/p>\n<p>To manage the missile threat in the Middle East, a number of recommendations can be outlined. <strong>Increasing transparency and scrutiny on conventional arms exports, as well as confidence and security-building measures<\/strong> (CSBMs) through relevant multilateral instruments should be encouraged. For instance, regional states that have not yet joined the HCoC should do so. While political obstacles remain, as Iran and Egypt have long criticised the HCoC for having been created outside the UN framework, there could be room for change if those states see the benefits of increased transparency. <strong>Clarifying international norms on missiles<\/strong> is also key. While the MTCR provides strict limitations on ballistic missiles exports, more inclusive international discussions (such as UN export dialogues) are needed on this topic. <strong>De-esclating heightened tensions between the US and Iran<\/strong> should also be a priority. The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) was partly justified in terms of Iran\u2019s missile activities, but by restoring the agreement, a major driver behind Iran\u2019s missile activities \u2013 Iranian threat perceptions \u2013 would be alleviated. Finally, <strong>developing regional CSBMs<\/strong> should be encouraged. One framework for missile related CSBMs could be to develop a Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (ME WMDFZ) that includes ballistic missiles, but this remain unlikely as long as Israel maintains its nuclear ambiguity. Certain steps could however be explored, like a regional dialogue focusing on clarifying the role of ballistic missiles, or the pre-notification of missile and satellite launches.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a369cd6 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a369cd6\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9d4ead3\" data-id=\"9d4ead3\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-929b751 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"929b751\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3c5d69f elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3c5d69f\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-16 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-223cc84\" data-id=\"223cc84\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-66 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-a63a6b4\" data-id=\"a63a6b4\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9bd6a15 elementor-widget elementor-widget-video\" data-id=\"9bd6a15\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;youtube_url&quot;:&quot;https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/watch?v=3fExASgn2sM&quot;,&quot;video_type&quot;:&quot;youtube&quot;,&quot;controls&quot;:&quot;yes&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"video.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-wrapper elementor-open-inline\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-video\"><\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-16 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9f4dafc\" data-id=\"9f4dafc\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-ea655b1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"ea655b1\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-dbe2356\" data-id=\"dbe2356\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b3fac4e elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"b3fac4e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On 29 October 2021, FRS organised a Side-Event in the margins of the UNGA First Committee, discussing the State of Ballistic Missile Proliferation Today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":204,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-events","category-other-events"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The State of Ballistic Missile Proliferation Today - HCoC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nonproliferation.eu\/hcoc\/the-state-of-ballistic-missile-proliferation-today\/\" \/>\n<meta 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