Regional Seminar in South Africa
Missile Proliferation: What role for confidence-building measures such as the HCoC

25-26 Novembre 2025

Pretoria, South Africa

On 25-26 November 2025, the FRS, in cooperation with the Department of International Relations & Cooperation (DIRCO), hosted a Regional Seminar in Pretoria dedicated to ‘Missile Proliferation: What Role for Confidence-Building Measures Such as the HCOC?’. Representatives from South Africa , as well as governmental delegates from regional countries (including Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Namibia, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) , and officials from international organisations and other experts took part in this event.

AGENDA

25 NOVEMBER 2025

Visit of the South African Air Force Museum

Presentation of the South African ballistic missile programme and its dismantlement (Prof. André Buys)

Introduction

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secretary General, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

  • Mr Kevin Kazimirek, Head of Political, Press and Information Section, Delegation of the European Union to South Africa
  • Mr. Christian Mandl, Director of the Austrian Cultural Forum, Pretoria

  • Amb. Alejandro Garofali, Representative of Uruguay to the United Nations (Vienna), Chair of the HCoC (2025-2026)

  • Ms. Lutendo Muvhango Director, Transnational Organised Crime, Department of International Relations & Cooperation, DIRCO

First session: The Global Non-Proliferation & Disarmament Architecture, Southern Africa and the issue of ‘Means of Delivery’

Moderator: Ms Gugu Dube, Researcher, Automated Decision Research

  • Mr Simabatu Mayele Sims Nono, Executive Director, Centre for Research and Information on Disarmament and Security (CRIDS)

  • Mr Kudakwashe Mapako, Arms Control Negotiations Academy Fellow

  • Mr Abdel Darou-Salim, Coordinator, UNODA Small Arms and Light weapons Fellowship for Africa, UNREC

Second session: The proliferation of ballistic missiles: Currents trends and security challenges

Moderator: Ms Sandy Africa, Research Director, Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA)

  • Mr Noel Stott, Senior Researcher, VERTIC

  • Mr Ian Fleming Zhou, Nuclear Policy Analyst & Researcher, Atomic Reporters and PhD Candidate, University of Pretoria

  • Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

Third session: The HCoC: A multilateral confidence-building measure dealing with ballistic missiles

Moderator: Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Research Fellow, FRS

  • Amb. Alejandro Garofali, Representative of Uruguay to the United Nations (Vienna), Chair of the HCoC (2025-2026)

  • Mr George-Wilhelm Gallnofer, Director for Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Head of Immediate Central Contact of the HCoC, Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs, Austria (recorded presentation)

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secretary General, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

Fourth session: Breakout discussion

 

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26 NOVEMBER 2025

Fith session: Space developments and spread of dual-use technologies

Moderator: Mr David (Thandokuhle Mandla) Kasibante, Founder and CEO at Space4Tomorrow, Space Generation Advisory Council 

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secratary General, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)
  • Mr Jaymion Hendricks, Office of the Chief State Law Advisor (International Law), DIRCO

Sixth session: Interactive Exercise

Moderators: Mr Noel Stott (VERTIC), Ms Ermanuelle Maitre (FRS) & Mr Miguel Angel Garcia Carrasco (FRS) 

Issue Briefs

The HCoC and Strategic Risk Reduction

As a multilateral instrument, the HCoC holds a particular place in a global architecture of measures that attempts to reduce the destabilising nature of ballistic missiles. By promoting transparency about policies and launches, it aims to limit the risk of misunderstanding, misinterpretation, and worst-case assessments.

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Issue Briefs

The HCoC at Twenty

Since its inception and through the collective outreach efforts of its Chairs, the Executive Secretariat, the EU and the United Nations, the Hague Code of Conduct has received growing support. It has improved its efficiency and implementation through a series of initiatives which have made it more easily accessible.

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Issue Briefs

The HCoC and Northeast Asian States

A majority of Northeast Asian states currently possess or seek to acquire ballistic missiles, producing a missile race and an increase in the number of tests as states are developing their capabilities further. Proliferation risks also remain high, and it is noteworthy that only South Korea and Japan have joined the MTCR.

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