Regional Seminar in South Africa
Missile Proliferation: What role for confidence-building measures such as the HCoC

25-26 Novembre 2025

Pretoria, South Africa

On 25-26 November 2025, the FRS, in cooperation with the Department of International Relations & Cooperation (DIRCO), hosted a Regional Seminar in Pretoria dedicated to ‘Missile Proliferation: What Role for Confidence-Building Measures Such as the HCOC?’. Representatives from South Africa , as well as governmental delegates from regional countries (including Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Namibia, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) , and officials from international organisations and other experts took part in this event.

AGENDA

25 NOVEMBER 2025

Visit of the South African Air Force Museum

Presentation of the South African ballistic missile programme and its dismantlement (Prof. André Buys)

Introduction

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secretary General, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

  • Mr Kevin Kazimirek, Head of Political, Press and Information Section, Delegation of the European Union to South Africa
  • Mr. Christian Mandl, Director of the Austrian Cultural Forum, Pretoria

  • Amb. Alejandro Garofali, Representative of Uruguay to the United Nations (Vienna), Chair of the HCoC (2025-2026)

  • Ms. Lutendo Muvhango Director, Transnational Organised Crime, Department of International Relations & Cooperation, DIRCO

First session: The Global Non-Proliferation & Disarmament Architecture, Southern Africa and the issue of ‘Means of Delivery’

Moderator: Ms Gugu Dube, Researcher, Automated Decision Research

  • Mr Simabatu Mayele Sims Nono, Executive Director, Centre for Research and Information on Disarmament and Security (CRIDS)

  • Mr Kudakwashe Mapako, Arms Control Negotiations Academy Fellow

  • Mr Abdel Darou-Salim, Coordinator, UNODA Small Arms and Light weapons Fellowship for Africa, UNREC

Second session: The proliferation of ballistic missiles: Currents trends and security challenges

Moderator: Ms Sandy Africa, Research Director, Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA)

  • Mr Noel Stott, Senior Researcher, VERTIC

  • Mr Ian Fleming Zhou, Nuclear Policy Analyst & Researcher, Atomic Reporters and PhD Candidate, University of Pretoria

  • Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

Third session: The HCoC: A multilateral confidence-building measure dealing with ballistic missiles

Moderator: Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Research Fellow, FRS

  • Amb. Alejandro Garofali, Representative of Uruguay to the United Nations (Vienna), Chair of the HCoC (2025-2026)

  • Mr George-Wilhelm Gallnofer, Director for Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Head of Immediate Central Contact of the HCoC, Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs, Austria (recorded presentation)

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secretary General, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)

Fourth session: Breakout discussion

 

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26 NOVEMBER 2025

Fith session: Space developments and spread of dual-use technologies

Moderator: Mr David (Thandokuhle Mandla) Kasibante, Founder and CEO at Space4Tomorrow, Space Generation Advisory Council 

  • Mr Alexandre Houdayer, Secratary General, Fondation pour la Recherche stratégique (FRS)
  • Mr Jaymion Hendricks, Office of the Chief State Law Advisor (International Law), DIRCO

Sixth session: Interactive Exercise

Moderators: Mr Noel Stott (VERTIC), Ms Ermanuelle Maitre (FRS) & Mr Miguel Angel Garcia Carrasco (FRS) 

Research Papers

The Shield and the Sword: The Impact of Ballistic Missile Defence on Missile Proliferation

Missile defence has become increasingly attractive in recent years, following the demonstration of its efficacity in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, and has epitomised by the ambitious Golden Dome programme. However, its relationship with missile proliferation is ambiguous. Arms control, non-proliferation and confidence building measures can to some extent address some of the most destabilizing features of this offense-defence competition.

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