Webinar - The Shield and the Sword: The Impact of Ballistic Missile Defence on Missile Proliferation

3 December 2025

Online

 

Scroll down to watch the video, where we explored the interactions between missile defence and missile proliferation, as well as how arms control, non-proliferation, and confidence-building measures may be used to mitigate these dynamics.

The multiplication of missile strikes in conflicts on a massive scale and the deterioration of strategic relations between major powers have produced a renewed interest in the acquisition of missile defence systems. The Trump administration has quite explicitly expressed this interest with the launch of the ‘Golden Dome’ programme. 

Missile defence acquisition and deployment are largely justified by the dissemination of missile technologies worldwide. Some of their promoters have asserted that they may bring stability or even contribute to curbing missile proliferation. However, the spread and increased capacity of missile are also playing a role in missile proliferation. 

Indeed, countries operating missile forces are incentivised to increase and improve their arsenals in the hope of overcoming defensive architectures. Missiles are also becoming more sophisticated to avoid interception. 

Finally, the development of missile defence is provoking a negative spiral regarding the militarisation of space.

 

 

 MODERATOR:

  • Mr Etienne Marcuz, Associate Fellow, FRS


PANELLISTS:

  • Ms Emmanuelle Maitre, Senior Research Fellow, FRS
  • Prof. Sitki Egeli, Associate Professor, Izmir University of Economics
  • Ms Zuzanna Gwadera, Research Analyst and Programme Administrator, IISS-UK
Issue Briefs

The Hague Code of Conduct in the Middle East

The HCoC holds special significance in the Middle East as the region is fraught with the development of ballistic arsenals, the use of missiles on the battlefield and the proliferation of such systems towards both states and non-state actors. Moreover, several ballistic missile programmes have been closely associated with WMD acquisition.

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Research Papers

Ballistic missiles and conventional strike weapons: Adapting the HCoC to address the dissemination of conventional ballistic missiles

The Hague Code of Conduct aims at curbing the proliferation of missiles capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction. Today, with an important increase in ranges, these weapons are more and more used for a conventional mission, by a variety of states. This dissemination illustrates the fact that many stakeholders master the technologies necessary to build and sustain these weapons. But it also raises questions on the possible destabilising effects of these arsenals, even when they are not linked to WMDs.

Read More »